Israel -
Lebanon Conflict:
Hezbollah and the July 12th Cross-Border Raid
On July
12th at 9:05 AM local time, near the northern Israeli village of Zar'it, a
team of Hezbollah terrorists from southern Lebanon crossed the border into
Israel, capturing two of their soldiers patrolling the area and killing
several others during the firefight and armored vehicle pursuit that
followed. This brazen incursion, ordered by Hezbollah leader, Hassan
Nasrallah, who refers to Israel as "the Zionist entity," was
designed, as in the past, to use captured soldiers to bargain for the
release of Lebanese terrorists held in Israeli prisons. The chart for this
cross-border raid has Virgo 2 rising, and from Charubel we find its degree
symbol to be:
A man peeping around a corner at a company of armed men, who are in the act
of reconnoitering.
The culminating degree of this war chart, which symbolizes the leader of the
Shiite Muslim terrorist organization who ordered the attack, reveals the
darkness within this man's soul. From La Volasfera, for Taurus 29, we find:
A powerful man, holding a scourge in his right hand, and driving two slaves
in manacles.
It signifies a tyrant, who takes delight in power apart from its uses, and
whose opinions are bigoted and selfish. To rule, without regard to
qualifications, is the passing ambition of one born under this degree. Death,
which frees the slave, will bind the hands of a tyrant in irons forged from
his own heart. It is a degree of DESPOTISM.
Mars in 23 Leo on that fateful day applied to a square with Israel's Sun,
and Saturn, in 11 Leo, was applying to a conjunction with Israel's Pluto. As
a symbol for the intense eruption of extreme violence which has occurred
over the last four weeks, Pluto is stationing direct opposite the Israeli
Uranus, after having stationed retrograde in square to their progressed Mars.
It is also of interest that this war started on the very day of a progressed
solar return (transit Sun conjunct secondary progressed Sun), and that
Israel had a progressed Moon-Mars conjunction, exact to 06' of arc, at the
commencement of hostilities.
Israel's military has retaliated forcefully with a massive aerial bombing of
Lebanese infrastructure, precision commando raids on Hezbollah cells, and a
ground invasion of 10,000 troops into southern Lebanon. At least 600
Lebanese have died in the bombings and artillery shelling so far, because
Hezbollah fighters hide among the civilian population. In turn, Hezbollah
has fired thousands of Iranian and Syrian made rockets and missiles deep
into Israel, killing or injuring hundreds of civilians and forcing almost a
million people into underground bomb shelters. What was Hezbollah thinking
when it launched this raid, and what has been the reason for Israel's
massive counterattack to defend its citizens against these Muslim guerillas?
As this correspondent wrote in his previous newsletter, Israel has its
progressed Mars applying to a square with Jupiter, a symbol if there ever
was one for a large-scale military operation. The debate in both the Western
and Muslim press is over "ethical military proportionality," a
Mars-Jupiter issue for certain. Israel began the war overconfidently,
bragging how they would crush Hezbollah in just two weeks, yet their bitter
enemy has proven to be a difficult adversary to defeat. This Mars-Jupiter
square also resulted in poor judgment and an overly optimistic military
strategy, with too much of an emphasis initially being placed on prosecuting
the war from the air. Pluto is transiting 26-27 of Sagittarius in 2006 and
2007, and will not form the final conjunction to Israel's Jupiter, or the
last square to their progressed Mars, until 20 November 2007 when both
volatile transits occur on the exact same day. It is the opinion of this
writer that a lasting cease fire will not hold.
Hezbollah was officially founded on 16 February 1985 in Beirut, after
evolving since 1982 as an amalgam of various Muslim resistance groups
trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, when Israel invaded Lebanon to
drive out Yasser Arafat and his PLO. Their suicide car bombing of the U.S.
Marine barracks, and of French troops in 1983 that killed over 300 total
soldiers, makes them rank second only to al Qaeda as America's most despised
enemy. Hezbollah has even struck South American Jewish targets in Argentina.
They were the first Islamist militant group to reintroduce the guerilla
tactic of suicide bombings, and the warlike Venus-Mars conjunction in Aries
shows that this organization is tough, aggressive and fearless of death.
Casting a noon horoscope for this violent organization, one finds a
Sun-Saturn square in 27 degrees of the fixed signs, attesting to the
renowned discipline and rigid military training that their fighters have
received from Iran. The Aquarian Sun is opposite Israel's Mars, and the
Saturn in Scorpio is opposite the Israeli Sun, and square that Mars. On the
positive side, this group, with the Sun in Aquarius, has built hospitals and
schools, as well as providing social services for the mostly poor Shiite
Muslims in the south of Lebanon. However, to Israel's chagrin, they hide
weapons inside those hospitals and schools.
The violent and genocidal philosophy of hatred against Jews espoused by this
radical group is seen in their Jupiter-Pluto square. That Jupiter at 2
degrees of Aquarius is exactly conjunct the IC of Israel. The 20th degree of
Gemini is rising in this noon horoscope, and we find its ruler, Mercury, in
25 Aquarius. The Saturn retrograde station at 25 Leo in early December
opposing the Hezbollah Mercury does not bode well for these Islamic radicals,
and much of the blame for the destruction of Lebanon will fall squarely on
their shoulders. This correspondent thinks that Hezbollah will become even
more radicalized next year, as in 2007 Uranus will square this group's
Uranus in 17 degrees of mutable. The North Node of Hezbollah is in the exact
degree of the May 2000 Jupiter-Saturn Grand Conjunction, Taurus 23, and its
degree symbol from La Volasfera starkly depicts the dark forces in Tehran
that are pulling the puppet strings of Mr Nasrallah:
A king sits upon a throne; behind him stands a figure veiled in black.
It signifies one who will suffer misfortune in the height of his career and
whose fall will be dangerous in proportion to the height he has attained.
The native will be too apt to depend on his own powers and will essay feats
which will be beyond his natural powers. Ambition will lead him into
dangerous positions, and at a weak moment he will fall. Let this be taken as
equally affecting his physical, moral, and social welfare. It is a degree of
COLLAPSE.
Israel's Second Saturn Return:
A Sobering Redefinition of National Security
On
August 19th, Israel will have its second Saturn return since statehood was
established in 1948. This Saturn return has become, in a such a short time,
an extremely painful lesson in just how vulnerable the country is to violent
aggressors beyond its borders using sophisticated and imported weaponry.
Since 2000, when Israel withdrew its troops from southern Lebanon after an
18-year occupation, Syria and Iran have been covertly arming the Hezbollah
militia with an arsenal of thousands of Katyusha rockets and Zelzal missiles.
These latter warheads have a range of 209 kilometers (about 125 miles) and
if launched from just south of Beirut, have the capacity to target Tel Aviv,
the commercial capital of Israel. Hezbollah possesses the most advanced
anti-tank missiles in the world, and has cutting edge technology and
communication systems that allowed the group to intercept Israeli military
transmissions. At this second Saturn return, Israel's security equation has
been radically altered by Hezbollah directly, and indirectly by Syrian and
Iranian complicity in this conflict in Lebanon.
To put this into an American perspective, the scenario that Israel now faces
would be like Hugo Chavez of Venezuela secretly funneling missiles and laser
guided weapons technology through Guatemala to anti-American radical groups
in Mexico, and these groups would then launch rocket attacks on Los Angeles
and San Diego from deep within the slums of Tijuana, Baja California. The
U.S. military would have no option, in order to protect American citizens,
other than to flatten Tijuana into a parking lot, regardless of civilian
casualties, and to tell Mr Chavez that if he doesn't quit his trouble making,
he's in the cross hairs of our cruise missile submarines in the Caribbean.
Bearing in mind that a nation undergoing its Saturn return is extremely
sensitive to the security of its citizens, and to the sovereignty of its
national borders, one can then understand the intense and ferocious Israeli
military response against the Muslim terrorists of Hezbollah. It is
realistic to say that the political equation in the Middle East has just
been turned upside down, and that a completely new diplomatic and military
reality for Israel is now in place. Can the astrologer return to the first
Israeli Saturn return between November 1976 and July 1977 and see if history
is repeating itself?
In 1976, turmoil also existed in Lebanon. Syrian troops and Lebanese
Christians battled Palestinian guerillas and Lebanese Muslims in southern
Lebanon. The Syrian army took control of Beirut, Tripoli, Sarda and the
highways that ran between these cities. A Christian leader, Elias Sarkis,
was elected President by the Lebanese parliament. In 1977, the Palestine
National Council called for "an independent national state" on
"national soil." Also that year, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat
arrived in Israel for the first visit by an Arab head of state since the
Jewish state was founded in 1948. Can any of these events from the last
Saturn return for Israel in 1976-77 provide insight into the current
instability in the region?
Yes, they can. If one stands back and presumes that the strategic aim of
Shiite Iran is to control the post-Saddam Middle East, and if one takes
seriously their declared threat to "wipe Israel off the map", then
one can begin to understand the existential threat that Israel now faces.
Israel has peace treaties with the Sunni Muslim nations of Egypt and Jordan,
and has a relatively non-confrontational relationship with Sunni Saudi
Arabia. Lebanon is being used by Iran and Syria to indirectly attack Israel
through the Shiite Muslim guerillas of Hezbollah. What Israel's previous
Saturn return teaches us is that a political wedge must now be driven
straight into the heart of Lebanese politics by the government in Jerusalem,
and by the UN Security Council. This wedge will have to marginalize and
disarm the Hezbollah radicals and create a political coalition free of
Syrian influence, consisting of secular Sunni Muslims, the Druze leadership,
and Lebanon's Maronite Christians.
Today, as the United States and France work together in the UN Security
Council to cobble together a resolution calling for an immediate cessation
of hostilities, there is a once-a-year Sun-Saturn conjunction, beginning a
new synodic cycle for the planet of stability and order. The symbol from La
Volasfera for the conjunction degree, Leo 15, is rather revealing:
A figure like the angel of the Sun (Michael), standing erect, and striking
the earth with the point of a dazzling sword.
It indicates a person of very superior ability in some special direction;
one in whom the power of government will reside; a mind somewhat ambitious,
but conscious of its own powers—which are of no common order—so that no
unjust advantage is taken. In some sphere of life the native will be an
imposing figure, or may do something which may call for wide recognition.
Fame and power attend this degree. It is one of SUPERIORITY
In a bog in the Irish midlands the week of July 17-21, shortly after the
Israel-Hezbollah war broke out, a man in a bulldozer dug up an ancient
manuscript buried and preserved in the muddy soil. It contained about 20
pages of Scriptural commentary written in Latin, and has been dated to the
9th or 10th century. When found, it was open to Psalm 83:
1 O God, do not keep silent;
be not quiet, O God, be not still.
2 See how your enemies are astir,
how your foes rear their heads.
3 With cunning they conspire against your people;
they plot against those you cherish.
4 "Come," they say, "let us destroy them as a nation,
that the name of Israel be remembered no more."
Hassan Nasrallah's Progressed Mars-Saturn Opposition:
His Impending Assassination by Israel
The head
of the Shiite Muslim terror organization, Hezbollah, is Hassan Nasrallah. He
was born on 31 August 1960 in Beirut, and his violent ways and thinking are
seen in a Sun-Mercury-Pluto triple conjunction in Virgo. Casting a noon
chart for this man, one finds his IC in the very degree of the USA Moon,
lending credence to the FBI's concerns that Hezbollah terror cells may
indeed already exist inside the United States. His perverse hatred of Israel
is seen in natal Uranus in 22 Leo, the exact midpoint of both the Israeli
Mars/Saturn and Venus/Neptune. Whether Israel offers peace to him (Venus/Neptune),
or if they threaten to kill him (Mars/Saturn), it makes no difference to
this willful extremist (Uranus), as his violent group has the sole aim of
destroying Israel. It is also of interest that Mr Nasrallah's Chiron, the
shamanic comet, is in the degree of the Hezbollah Midheaven. The Sabian
Symbol for this degree, Aquarius 30, as rewritten by Dane Rudhyar, is:
Deeply rooted in the past of a very ancient culture, a spiritual brotherhood
in which many individual minds are merged into the glowing light of a
unanimous consciousness is revealed to one who has emerged successfully from
his metamorphosis.
In pondering this symbolism, it leaves one wondering if these Muslim
extremists of Hezbollah are practicing some sort of sorcery in their pursuit
of the destruction of Israel. Mr Nasrallah's ability to lead a radical
political group is seen in his Jupiter-Uranus trine, and it is of interest
that the Israeli progressed Moon was conjunct his natal Venus right on the
transiting South Node when this war broke out. If the Israeli Air Force
cannot kill Mr Nasrallah in his underground bunker with a massive aerial
bombardment, as they tried to do early on in this war, the Mossad, Israel's
intelligence agency, is determined to assassinate him. Will they be
successful?
Examining the Hezbollah leader's progressed horoscope, it appears that his
funeral is near at hand. Besides his progressed Moon conjoining the rising
degree in the July 12th outbreak of war chart, he has progressed Mars
applying to an opposition with Saturn, along with transit Saturn about to
form three conjunctions with his natal Uranus. Without his birth time being
known, astrologers can only calculate a range of dates within which his
progressed Mars will perfect that opposition. This is accomplished by first
casting his chart for 12:01 AM on 31 August 1960, and then calculating when
the Mars-Saturn opposition perfects. Second, we have to cast his nativity
for 11:59 PM on that day, run the progressed calculations, thereby
determining the earliest possible date when this aspect could become exact.
If one's violent ways were to be curtailed, the progression of Mars into
opposition with Saturn is certainly the aspect to bring this about.
The 12:01 AM nativity produces a natal Mars in 18 Gemini 07, with the
progressed Mars opposition to Saturn perfecting on 3 January 2009. The 11:59
PM horoscope has Mars in 18 Gemini 43; the progression becoming exact on 11
December 2007. In either case, his progressed Mars has already entered its
one degree applying orb to the opposition with Saturn. Employing C.E.O.
Carter's Law of Excitation, wherein the transit of Mars or Saturn making a
hard aspect to this forming progressed opposition will "excite the
direction into immediate operation", one finds that Mars will pass
through 11 degrees of Libra on September 25th-26th. The first transit of
Saturn over his natal Uranus will take place on October 12th of this year.
Recurring Neptune-Pluto Septiles 2001-2011:
Late 1930s Nazism and Modern Day Islamist Fascism
As your
correspondent has written in previous newsletters, a total of twenty
Neptune-Pluto septiles are forming in the heavens between December 2001 and
February 2011. Due to the orbital eccentricity of Pluto, which speeds up and
comes inside the orbit of Neptune for 20 years during its 248-year sojourn
around the Sun, these are recurring aspects and previously formed seven
times between December 1937 and September 1940. During this period, the rise
of Nazism and anti-Semitism culminated in the German invasion of Poland in
September 1939, and the outbreak of World War II. With Neptune and Pluto
once again in septile aspect since shortly after the 9/11 terrorist attacks,
when the U.S. declared war on Islamist terrorism, is an equivalent
escalation of irrational fascist extremism again taking place on Earth,
similar to the late 1930s?
After contemplating the meaning of the 51 3/7 degree septile, one conclusion
is that planet Earth is in serious trouble, yet help is on the way. In
Sabian Aspect Orbs, this author equated the septile aspect with the Sabian
Symbol for Taurus 22:
White dove flying over troubled waters.
Sounds a little bit like the Holy Ghost, eh? In that book, this writer also
stated:
Dane Rudhyar wrote that the seventh harmonic aspects are equated with the
fulfillment of a process, and also with the seeding of the following cycle.
Chaldean mathematicians found that six consecutive circles of the exact same
size could be set within a larger circumference, with an identical seventh
circle placed in the center. In symbolic geometry, the seventh circle
represents the hidden seed which is to germinate the following cycle once
the current one is concluded. In the Book of Genesis, this symbolism is
evident in the Creation story, with God resting on the seventh day.
From this perspective, a cycle of world history is now ending and a hidden
seed is emerging to germinate the new era. The crucial question is, "What
exactly is this hidden seed?" For Christians, it will be the second
coming of Jesus Christ. Israel is the land where it is prophesied that this
will take place. The forming of the State of Israel in 1948, to many Western
believers, was the necessary harbinger for this spiritual event to come
about. This is a creative and devotional belief, open to all humans
regardless of one's religion, and thus inclusionary. It can be theorized
that this force comes under the rulership of Neptune.
In Shiite Islam, their believers also await the return of a Messiah, the
Mystical 12th Imam. According to their religion, to the best of this
correspondent's understanding, in 941 A.D. this Imam entered a cave hidden
by a mystical doorway called the Gate of Occultation. This doctrine teaches
that Allah (God) cloaked this hidden Imam from human view so as to preserve
him until his return. Shiites also believe that this 12th Imam, the Mahdi,
will return to Earth to lead the final jihadist battle between good and evil
when the world has reached a point of sufficient negativity and degradation.
From their teachings, it appears that humanity has no control over just when
this Mystical Imam will return, but a sect within Shiite Islam called the
Hojjatieh, to which the current Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is
said to belong, believes the return of the Mahdi can be hastened by the
implementation of chaos and destruction on Earth. Mr Ahmadinejad even made
references to this theology during his speech at the United Nations.
Apparently, it is through this logic that Iran wishes to destroy Israel and
bring on Armageddon, thereby causing the return of the Hidden Imam. This is
a destructive approach, not open to all humans, and exclusionary. It can be
theorized that this force is under the rulership of Pluto.
Thus, in this mind-boggling spiritual scenario, Pluto in the sign of
religion, Sagittarius, forms septiles with Neptune in the sign of the
Brotherhood of Man, Aquarius, therefore causing a vast struggle on the
astral and causal planes over what collective belief system will prevail on
Earth. Metaphysically, if one billion Christians and one billion Muslims are
sending thought forms containing the mass magnetics of their respective, yet
competing, belief systems into the ethers, one can only imagine the epic tug
of war taking place in the Angelic Realms at the present time. A key
question arises when looking at reality in this way: When, within the nine
years, one month and 13 days between the first and last septiles, would
something big happen?
Your correspondent has a theory: Of the twenty septiles between Neptune and
Pluto, one will occur with Pluto having just entered the powerful cardinal
ingress degree of 0 Capricorn. This septile occurs on 22 February 2008 with
Neptune in 22 Aquarius 10 and Pluto in 00 Capricorn 44. It appears that at
this time, a global religious experience of some kind will occur.
Sober and practical astrologers, who may wish to shun these esoteric
speculations, justifiably would want to know when the Judeo-Christian world
would have to put an end to Iran's intentions to destroy Israel. By
researching the upcoming secondary progressions for this Islamic regime, one
finds that a progressed Sun-Saturn opposition will perfect on 24 July 2007.
At that time, the Iranian Venus has also progressed to the exact degree of
the USA Pluto in 27 Capricorn. With these aspects, it is safe to assume that
we are about a year away from a major military confrontation. The Islamic
Republic of Iran will then experience its first Saturn return in September
2008. It is doubtful that the present theocratic regime can stay in power
beyond this date. It is also no small coincidence that the USA progressed
Mars stationed retrograde in the very same degree of the Iranian progressed
Pluto, exact to 06' of arc.
Saturn Inconjunct Uranus:
The Indirect War Between the United States, Israel, Syria and Iran
Watching
the Israel-Lebanon conflict unfold over the past few weeks, it has struck
your correspondent just how indirectly this war is being fought. Hezbollah
is being armed and financed by both Syria and Iran, with some reports
stating that the Shiite Muslim guerilla group receives $100 million from the
Iranians each year. The Israeli government in Jerusalem has said that it
doesn't want to go to war with Damascus, all the while bombing the highways
and bridges from Syria into Lebanon in order to prevent Hezbollah from being
resupplied with weaponry. Israel has not confronted Tehran directly, even
though it has become obvious that this war was started as a diversion by the
Iranians to take world attention away from their uranium enrichment program.
In fact, this conflict started the day after the EU foreign-policy chief,
Javier Solana, had gone to Tehran to press the Iranians to suspend their
nuclear fuel program or else be referred to the UN Security Council for
sanctions.
This correspondent has written in several previous newsletters about the
current Saturn-Uranus cycle, and how it underpins the War on Islamist
Terrorism. During this war between Israel and Hezbollah, Saturn has formed
its 3rd and final inconjunct with Uranus, this aspect having just perfected
on August 1st. Casting this chart for Jerusalem, its MC/IC axis are in the
exact degrees of Hassan Nasrallah's noon chart horizon, and its Mars is in
the same degree as his Pluto.
To gain a clearer perspective about the turmoil in the Middle East, one must
step back and look at this entire 44-year cycle, which started with the
conjunction of these two heavenly bodies in February 1988 at 29 Sagittarius
55. Two additional Saturn-Uranus conjunctions also occurred that year, the
middle retrograde conjunction in June 1988, and the final one took place in
October. From Charubel, for Sagittarius 30, we find:
A man standing alone in a dark and gloomy valley,
and a ray of brilliant light coming direct from the heavens on the crown of
his head.
Denotes one who will have a mission to execute; a cyclic man, not a time
man;
one who lives a life beyond his day; not always understood, he suffers
accordingly.
The degree symbolism for the beginning of this violent and gloomy cycle of
history gives one hope that Christ will return soon.
The eminent French mundane astrologer, Andre Barbault, has written about
mundane planetary cycles as such:
conjunction = the current is born
sextile = it takes shape
square = becomes a crisis or an internal conflict
trine = asserts itself and takes wing
opposition = fights or is fought, and meets a final challenge, during which
it either surpasses itself or regresses
In 1988, at the conjunction of Saturn and Uranus at the beginning of this
cycle, the Declaration of Palestinian Independence occurred, and the first
Intifada began against Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. Also
that year, P.L.O. military leader, Abu Jihad, was assassinated by Israeli
secret agents. In May 1996, at the first sextile, Israel's Operation Grapes
of Wrath had just taken place, killing over a hundred Lebanese civilians in
Qana at a UN refugee camp in an attempt to target Hezbollah guerillas who
were firing from that area on Israeli soldiers. The outrage over this event
added further shape to the resistance movements of both the P.L.O. and
Hezbollah.
At the Saturn-Uranus square in July 1999, the new Israeli prime minister,
Ehud Barak, offered to conduct peace negotiations with Syria, the
Palestinians, and the Lebanese. This Israeli outreach split the resistance
movements, and produced internal conflict within their inner circles over
their future strategy with Israel. At the Saturn-Uranus trine in August
2002, in a Ha'aretz (Israel) newspaper interview with IDF Chief of Staff
Moshe Ya'alon, he was asked about "the theory of the spider web":
"It is a theory that is attributed to [Hezbollah secretary-general]
Hassan Nasrallah, which holds that Israel is a military power, but that its
civil society is a pampered consumer society that is no longer willing to
fight and struggle. The Israeli army is strong, Israel has technological
superiority and is said to have strategic capabilities, but its citizens are
unwilling any longer to sacrifice lives in order to defend their national
interests and national goals. Therefore, Israel is a spider-web society: It
looks strong from the outside, but touch it and it will fall apart."
These comments by the Israeli Lieutenant General reveal that by the trine
between Saturn and Uranus, Israel's Muslim enemies and their resistance
movements had begun to "assert themselves and take wing",
according to Mr Barbault's mundane cycle theory, believing that Israel was
in a weakened position, while they themselves were gaining in strength.
Now, at the 150 degree inconjunct between Saturn and Uranus, an aspect not
included by Mr Barbault in his mundane cycle analysis, Israel finds itself
fighting an "indirect war." Indirectness is a characteristic of
the inconjunct. This difficult to handle aspect produces as much conflict as
an opposition, but since it is skewed off at 30 degrees, conflict cannot be
confronted directly and must be adjusted to internally. This is the tortuous
position that Israel now find itself in at her second Saturn return:
Hezbollah cannot be defeated militarily without international outrage over
massive civilian casualties, and therefore a UN-brokered cease fire will
have to be acquiesced to. Another characteristic of an inconjunct is that it
can produce surprise events, just beyond one's peripheral vision. This is
certainly the case with Hezbollah's weapons arsenal, as Israel had no idea
that the Muslim guerillas possessed the land-to-sea laser-guided missiles
that struck the Israeli warship in the opening days of this war, or that
Hezbollah's fighters would be equipped with night-vision goggles and
sophisticated anti-tank missiles.
Looking forward in time, according to Mr Barbault, at the cycle's opposition
a movement "fights or is fought, and meets a final challenge, during
which it either surpasses itself or regresses." In this cycle analysis,
the real showdown between Israel and its enemies is still yet to come. From
November 2008 until July 2010, there will be five Saturn-Uranus oppositions,
the fifth and final one occurring exactly on the Cardinal Point of 0 Aries-0
Libra. It is difficult not to view this present Israel-Hezbollah conflict as
a preview of the Armageddon to come in 2008-2010. Whether the violent
Islamist movement "surpasses itself or regresses" during this time
is the key global question of modern history.